The internet revolution has produced
a golden age for punters, with a large number of bookmakers competing for the betting
pound/euro/dollar/naira.
This has produced fantastic
opportunites for those disciplined enough to exploit it, with margins virtually non existent if you shop around to
get the best prices.
Essentially if your opinion is any good you really ought
to be winning and winning regularly.
Based on experience on both sides of
the fence, I have come up with some golden rules for successful wagering on the
horses.
1
- Specialise
There is so much racing, especially
in the Summer, that it's virtually impossible to be on top of all of it, and
attempting to do so is liable to dilute ones views and lead to errors in
judgement.
Try and find an area that you can
get to grips with the form in. For example, novice hurdles or 2Y0'S on the
flat. Bet only in these races and watch
every one of these races.
2
- Maintain A Database
Specialising in one area means you
can easily use a database to log all your views and notes on every race.
Several companies offer ready made versions, which allow you to insert your own
views alongside their own expert analysis.
3
- Price Up Every Race You Can
This is essential to anyone who
wishes to try and profit from betting on the horses. There have been thousands
of excellent judges of form who fail at gambling simply because they "bet
what they fancy and a winner is a winner".
The only way to form an accurate
view of when it is time to bet is to price up the races to 100 per cent. If for instance you price up a three horse race at Evens,
3-1 and 3-1, but the actual prices available are 6-4 2-1 5-2, then the
"value" lies in betting the 6-4 chance.
Clearly this is a simplistic example
and racing is not black and white but it is still an excellent habit to get
into and stops ill discipline and having too many bets.
4
- When The Weather Changes, Be Patient And Wait
The Summer months of racing are
traditionally the hardest for layers. Put simply, the weather is usually dry
and the ground stays the same, on the fast side of good.
However when the weather changes so
do the results. Be careful analysing form on fast ground when the actual race
may be on soft. This is why there are bookmakers!
5
- The Shape Of The Race
This is the least considered but
arguably the most important factor in analysing a race you intend to price up
and wager in.Try to understand the run styles of
the protaganists and what suits them best.
For example if there are two
headstrong frontrunners in the race, both are liable to ruin each other up
front and tee the race up for a hold up horse.
Similarly if something is sure to
get a soft unpressed lead it is much more probable it will give its best running.A lot of this is a "feel"
thing that will come from experience of watching thousands of races and keeping
accurate notes.
6
- Follow An In Form Small Yard Over A Big Name Stable
Generally the horses from the
bigger, well established yards tend to be overbet in relation to the form they
have actually achieved. Try and steer clear of hype and "info" and
focus on what you have seen with your own eyes.
Younger trainers just starting out
tend to be more up for the game than those that have already enjoyed success in
the past. 0ver the jumps for instance "new" trainers such as Neil
Mulholland and Charlie Longsden have made excellent starts which the betting
market has yet to reflect.
7
- Record Every Bet You Make And Review Them Each Month
Discipline is paramount and
essential for weeding out bad value bets.
8
- Never Bet Odds-On And Try To Find Each-Way Value
As a punter for around 20 years now
I personally try and avoid betting odds-on and focus mainly on each-way
opportunites. The hit rate needed when betting odds-on regularly is very high
and with Betfair
dictating prices these days, it is very hard to find any price advantage at
this end of the market.
Much better to play in 8, 9 or 10 runner races each-way
where the terms are very much in the punters favour. This is no better
illustrated in the Betfair place-only prices which are often significantly less
than what is avaliable using a traditional bookmaker.
9
- The Effect Of The Draw
This is becoming more and more
relevant to finding winners and is a constant source of frustration to punters
on the flat. More and more, for whatever reason, certain parts of racecourses
have faster strips of turf that see those horses drawn high or low enjoy a huge
advantage.
It is important to record this bias
and remember it for future betting. At Folkestone for example this season, of
ten sprints on the straight course, nine have been won by those drawn in the
two stalls nearest the stands rail.
10
- Latch Onto A Young Claiming Pilot Over A 'Star'
So often horses ridden by star
"name" pilots are underpriced simply because punters believe they
have been booked because connections expect them to win. Also they have a huge
betting shop following who simply bet anything that L Dettori or A P McCoy
rides.
As is so often the case with successful betting, staying away from the mainstream view is often the best
option. Try and spot young riders who are strong and decent judges of pace.
With their claim (a reduction in weight the horse has to carry because they
have yet to ride a certain number of winners), they can represent more value if
you notice them before everyone else.
Hopefully these "rules"
will be of help to younger players interested on betting on horse racing. As
with most things, the more hard graft you put in, the more you get out.
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